mardi 10 janvier 2017

New cold blast coming for a large part of Europe

+++New cold blast coming for a large part of Europe+++ Weather outlook for Europe for the next 10 days, according to the latest GFS model guidance: a new cold blast for much of the continent and a new cutoff low for the Mediterranean. A new trough is pushed from the northern Atlantic across the British Isles and Ireland, W Scandinavia and the North sea into W-CNTRL Europe . It pushes the ongoing cutoff low over the E Mediterranean to the NE into Russia and establishes a new large cutoff low over S Europe. This new cold blast will bring first pretty windy conditions and snowfall to parts of the British Isles and Ireland; very windy conditions with sustained winds of 80-110 km/h persist over parts of the British Isles, Ireland, North sea, S Norway and S Sweden, Denmark, parts of BeNeLux and the Baltic region through Friday, the 13th. More on this windy system later. More snow is likely in store for the northern part of the Alps, due to the persistent northerly to northwesterly flow and precipitation due to stau effect. Some new snow also in the Carpathians, as well as the Pyrenees and parts of the northern Dinarides and Apennines. Much new snow also in SW Norway. More on this in our outlooks. While cold, the airmass in this cold blast will not be as cold as the arctic blast of the previous week. A rex block forms after about January 17, with a strong ridge over the UK and Ireland, extending into Scandinavia, while the large cutoff low persists over W-CNTRL Mediterranean and central Europe. Maps show temperature at 850 mbar level (approx. 1500 m elevation). GFS model guidance matches pretty well with the lates ECMWF model guidance. Map: Meteociel
Publié par Severe Weather Europe sur mardi 10 janvier 2017

Excessive Snowfall Outlook across Europe – Jan 8-11, 2017

An overview of the pattern through the next 3 days when some areas in Europe will be experiencing excessive snowfall. One of these areas is the E Balkans and Turkey which is influenced by the arctic outbreak airmass associated with stationary upper low centered above the Aegean sea. Dark blue areas should expect 30-50 cm of new snow until Tuesday. Even more seems possible in the mountains of S Turkey, local totals could exceed 100 cm.
Persistent N-NE-erlies across the W Balkan peninsula and central Europe will result in additional snowfall across the N side of the Alps and in SE Italy (Adriatic sea-effect snow) and 30-50 cm seems possible there as well.
Iceland and mountainous Norway should experience deep cyclones moving from N Atlantic into Scandinavia and result in excessive precipitation where higher elevations could receive 40-75 cm of new snow by Tuesday.
Elsewhere, areas around the dark blue areas will be getting some snow, but not very significant or excessive amounts are expected.
The white shaded area across the S-CNTRL Balkan peninsula should be alert for extremely low morning temperatures in the coming days due to fresh snow, very cold and dry airmass spread over these countries and diminishing winds under the high pressure and clear skies. Should not be surprised to see some areas even below -25°C!