Découvert samedi dernier,
l’astéroïde nommé 2017 AG13 est passé à proximité de la Terre le 9
janvier à 7 h 47 HE. Un passage éclair pour ce bout de roche que
personne n’avait vu venir et dont le diamètre oscillait ainsi entre 25 et 35
mètres pour une vitesse estimée à seize kilomètres par seconde.
Les chercheurs ont longtemps
exprimé leurs préoccupations quant aux menaces d’astéroïdes ou météores
potentiellement dangereux. Le mois dernier, la Maison-Blanche publiait d’ailleurs un plan détaillé intitulé
« National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy » visant à
préparer le monde contre ce type de menaces imprévisibles. Et 2017 AG13
l’était, imprévisible. Repéré seulement samedi dernier, l’astéroïde est passé
assez près de notre position à une distance située à mi-chemin entre notre
planète et la Lune, à environ 190 000 kilomètres de distance, alors qu’il
traversait les orbites de la Terre et de Vénus.
Avec un diamètre oscillant entre
25 et 35 mètres et se déplaçant à une vitesse estimée à 16 kilomètres par
seconde, 2017 AG13 n’aurait néanmoins pas fait (trop) de dégâts. C’est en
tout cas ce que suggèrent les simulations d’impacts réalisées en urgence par le
directeur de l’Institut des sciences planétaires Mark Sykes. Les mesures ont en
effet présagé l’explosion du morceau de roche lors de son entrée dans
l’atmosphère : « L’explosion aurait libéré 700 kilotonnes
d’énergie, des dizaines de fois plus puissante que l’explosion de la bombe
atomique sur Hiroshima », explique le chercheur. « Cette
explosion aurait néanmoins eu lieu à une quinzaine de kilomètres d’altitude et
n’aurait pas impacté le sol ».
2017 AG13 ne devait donc pas
s’attarder sur la Terre, mais cela ne l’empêche pas de faire couler beaucoup
d’encre depuis le début de la semaine. Et ce pour une raison assez
simple : personne ne l’avait vu venir. Rappelons que des millions
d’astéroïdes circulent en permanence dans le Système solaire. Or, selon la Planetary Society, nous n’avons découvert que 60 % des
astéroïdes et comètes à courte période proches de la Terre (avec des périodes
orbitales de moins de 200 ans) dont les diamètres sont estimés à 1,5 kilomètre
ou plus. La bonne nouvelle, c’est que les corps potentiellement dangereux n’ont
que 0,01 % de chance d’impacter la Terre dans les cent prochaines années.
Imagens registrada por um cinegrafista amador,
no bairro da Vila Leopoldina, zona oeste da cidade, têm intrigado os moradores
da região. São dois objetos no ar que se parecem com uma nave espacial. A
equipe do Cidade Alerta foi até o local para entender essa misteriosa aparição.
Imagens registrada por um cinegrafista amador,
no bairro da Vila Leopoldina, zona oeste da cidade, têm intrigado os moradores
da região. São dois objetos no ar que se parecem com uma nave espacial. A
equipe do Cidade Alerta foi até o local para entender essa misteriosa aparição.
The largest deep earthquake to strike in years has occurred in the West Pacific
(below the Philippines + Malaysia).
The forecast and earthquake watch issued on January 7, 2017 specifically called
for up to M7.9 earthquake activity to strike Philippines. This is also the
largest earthquake of the year for Philippines itself. An 72 hour earthquake
watch was issued 72 hours prior to this movement ...
The depth of the M7.3 is of particular concern... measuring in at over 610km
deep.
Deep earthquakes usually lead to shallower larger earthquakes which strike the
"silent zone fulcrum points" on every side of the deep event.
Thus Japan, Papua New Guinea (solomon sea), and Indonesia all three need to be
warned, and all three will be hit by larger activity (larger than anything
we've seen in the past several weeks). This could reach above M6.5 in several
locations.
The larger earthquakes could go a full 1-2 magnitudes LARGER than the deep M7.3
- thus making the potential for a very large earthquake (M8.3 to M9.3) much
greater than "normal".
The larger earthquakes, if they occur, should strike to the West of the Deep
earthquake with additional pressure fanning out across the area to the North
and slightly East as far as Papua New Guinea.
This is the largest deep earthquake we've seen in years, which means the whole
Pacific plate is about to be displaced (is being displaced). Areas such as the
West coast of the United States (Eureka to Cleft Segment) should be on
heightened alert for the potential for up to M6.8 to M7.0 .
Midwest USA should be on watch after California - watch for midrange M5.0 or
swarms = to this. Could be swarms of 3's mixed with a few midrange M4.0
earthquakes, but more likely something larger.
This week is going to be a week of displacement around the planet.. all the way
to Europe and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.
Italy, South Europe, Mediterranean -- you only have 3-4 days at the most before
you'll start seeing an influx of new seismic pressure which will increase
magnitudes by up to 3X. This means up to a 1,000% power increase from the
M3.0's we've been seeing. The potential for M6.0 activity in Greece is large.
The potential for M5.0 activity in Central Italy at the NEW swarm location
which popped up yesterday (Jan 9 2016).
Active
Volcanoes and recent Earthquakes world-wide
+++New cold blast coming for a large part of Europe+++
Weather outlook for Europe for the next 10 days, according to the latest GFS model guidance: a new cold blast for much of the continent and a new cutoff low for the Mediterranean. A new trough is pushed from the northern Atlantic across the British Isles and Ireland, W Scandinavia and the North sea into W-CNTRL Europe . It pushes the ongoing cutoff low over the E Mediterranean to the NE into Russia and establishes a new large cutoff low over S Europe. This new cold blast will bring first pretty windy conditions and snowfall to parts of the British Isles and Ireland; very windy conditions with sustained winds of 80-110 km/h persist over parts of the British Isles, Ireland, North sea, S Norway and S Sweden, Denmark, parts of BeNeLux and the Baltic region through Friday, the 13th. More on this windy system later.
More snow is likely in store for the northern part of the Alps, due to the persistent northerly to northwesterly flow and precipitation due to stau effect. Some new snow also in the Carpathians, as well as the Pyrenees and parts of the northern Dinarides and Apennines. Much new snow also in SW Norway. More on this in our outlooks. While cold, the airmass in this cold blast will not be as cold as the arctic blast of the previous week.
A rex block forms after about January 17, with a strong ridge over the UK and Ireland, extending into Scandinavia, while the large cutoff low persists over W-CNTRL Mediterranean and central Europe.
Maps show temperature at 850 mbar level (approx. 1500 m elevation). GFS model guidance matches pretty well with the lates ECMWF model guidance.
Map: Meteociel
Publié par Severe Weather Europe sur mardi 10 janvier 2017
Excessive Snowfall Outlook across Europe – Jan 8-11, 2017
An overview of the pattern through the next 3
days when some areas in Europe will be experiencing excessive snowfall. One of
these areas is the E Balkans and Turkey which is influenced by the arctic
outbreak airmass associated with stationary upper low centered above the Aegean
sea. Dark blue areas should expect 30-50 cm of new snow until Tuesday. Even
more seems possible in the mountains of S Turkey, local totals could exceed 100
cm.
Persistent N-NE-erlies across the W Balkan
peninsula and central Europe will result in additional snowfall across the N
side of the Alps and in SE Italy (Adriatic sea-effect snow) and 30-50 cm seems
possible there as well.
Iceland and mountainous Norway should experience
deep cyclones moving from N Atlantic into Scandinavia and result in excessive
precipitation where higher elevations could receive 40-75 cm of new snow by
Tuesday.
Elsewhere, areas around the dark blue areas will
be getting some snow, but not very significant or excessive amounts are
expected.
The white shaded area across the S-CNTRL Balkan
peninsula should be alert for extremely low morning temperatures in the coming
days due to fresh snow, very cold and dry airmass spread over these countries
and diminishing winds under the high pressure and clear skies. Should not be
surprised to see some areas even below -25°C!
Thaïlande: 25 morts en 8 jours, le terrible bilan des
inondations
Ajoutée le 10 janv. 2017
Le sud du pays est inaccessible
par voie terrestre. Les inondations ont coupé les habitants du sud du reste du
pays. Les fondations des deux principaux ponts reliant le sud au nord se sont
effondrées. La circulation ferroviaire est également coupée dans cette région,
où par endroits les rails ont été arrachées par les flots.
Au moins 25 personnes sont mortes et deux sont toujours portées disparues. Les
zones touristiques, notamment la ville côtière de Krabi et l'île de Koh Samui
ont été touchées par ces pluies torrentielles. Un résident de l'île contacté
par L'Express a cependant assuré que la situation sur place "s'est
largement améliorée depuis ce week-end."
Ces précipitations inhabituelles
pour la saison (la mousson en Thaïlande s'étend de juin à octobre), sont les
plus importantes depuis 30 ans, d'après le chef de la junte au pouvoir.
21 dead 1 million affected after 2nd
deadly flooding event in less than a month in South Thailand after record rainfall
Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM)
report that 21 people have now died in the floods affecting southern provinces
of the country.
At least 11 provinces are in emergency situations as a result of
flooding which has affected over 1 million people. Thai Meteorological
Department has forecast further heavy rain until Tuesday, 10 January.
Nakhon Si Thammarat airport closed from 06 January and will possibly
re-open today, 09 January. Thai news agency NNT said that the province of
Nakhon Si Thammarat has suffered its worst flood crisis in 30 years with
300,000 people affected and seven people dead.
Unusually heavy rain for this time of year, influenced by low depression
and the strong northeast monsoon, has caused widespread flooding in southern
provinces of Thailand since 01 January, 2017.
This is the second deadly flood event within a month in south Thailand.
At least 11 people died and 350,000 were affected after flooding struck
southern provinces in December 2016.
As of 07 January the affected provinces included Pattani, Yala,
Narathiwat, Songkhla, Phattalung, Trang, Nakhon Sri Thammarat, Krabi, Surat
Thani, Chumphon and Ranong.
DDPM said that 91 districts, 569 sub-districts, 4,205 villages, 330,318
households and over 1 million people have been affected. Damages have been
reported to 218 roads, 59 bridges, 5 government facilities, 11 schools and 5
mosques.
Heavy rain over the last 48 hours has caused flooding in the province of
Prachuap Khiri Khan.